Australian Open Winner 2018 Odds

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Dan Weston has analysed the conditions and contenders ahead of the first Grand Slam of the year. Is there any value in the men’s Australian Open winner odds? Read on to find out what the stats suggest.

2018 Australian Open Betting Odds and Outright Winner Picks The Australian Open marks the real beginning of the tennis season. Players have had a tournament or two to get the rust off and they are all coming into the Aussie Open determined to kick off the season with a big performance. The 2018 Australian Open was a tennis tournament played at Melbourne Park between 15 and 28 January 2018, and was the first Grand Slam tournament of the 2018 season. The tournament consisted of events for professional players in singles, doubles and mixed doubles play. Australian Open winner predictions, odds and tennis betting tips. The Romanian, French Open champion in 2018 and Wimbledon heroine a year later, will be aware that. Elise Mertens vs. Caroline Wozniacki 2018 Australian Open Pick, Odds, Prediction AUTHOR: Randy Chambers Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

Frequently at the start of the season, there is almost a ‘new school year’ feel, with players refreshed following some off-season rest and preparation, full of enthusiasm. While that may be the case with some players this year, this year’s men’s event can be more accurately described as the walking wounded.

Men’s Australian Open winner odds: The favourites

A number of top players - including Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka - have considerable injury doubts, while Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori are among the high-profile withdrawals from the tournament.

Given these numerous injury issues, it’s unsurprising to see Roger Federer installed as a strong favourite to win the event, with the Swiss legend currently available at 2.889*, Rafa Nadal (4.710*) and Novak Djokovic (5.690*) next in the betting.

Federer has a superior record to Nadal in their last 50 matches against top 10 opponents (37-13 compared to 27-23) and this is likely to give him a big edge over the rest of the field.

Across the last three years at Melbourne Park, 80.2% of service games have been held, slightly more than the 79.4% ATP hardcourt mean during this time period, while 0.62 aces per game were served, again slightly up on the 0.57 hard court average. With this in mind, it’s reasonable to assert that overall conditions are a touch quicker than average, but not unduly so.

It has been commented by some observers that some courts in this event play quicker than others, but given that historical data does not provide court information to allow backtesting, it is impossible to statistically prove or disprove such an assertion.

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Federer would generally prefer conditions to be as quick as possible, but last year’s title was his first in the Australian Open since 2010 - he’s won five titles overall (three of them between 2004 and 2007). He needed five sets to get the better of Nadal in an epic tussle in last year’s final (the Spaniard hasn’t won the Australian Open since 2009 and that was his first final at the event since 201). Novak Djokovic - five titles in total - has dominated since the start of the decade.

However, as mentioned previously both Nadal and Djokovic have big injury concerns. Nadal ended his 2017 campaign early after one match at the Tour Finals (following his withdrawal from Paris a fortnight earlier) and pulled out of the Brisbane warm-up event last week as well. Djokovic - with a new service motion - eased past Dominic Thiem in the Kooyong Exhibition this week after not playing since his retirement in the Wimbledon quarterfinals in July.

Statistically, there isn’t much to choose between Federer and Nadal, with Federer winning 71.2% of service points won on hard court in the last 12 month, and 39.3% on return (combined 110.5%), with Nadal (70.2%, 40.5% = combined 110.7%) almost identical. However, Federer has a superior record in his last 50 matches against top 10 opponents (37-13 compared to 27-23) and this is likely to give him a big edge over the rest of the field in the latter stages of the event.

Djokovic (106.4% combined) saw his statistics drop vastly last year - evidently afflicted by injury - but it’s worth noting that peak Djokovic - for example in 2015 - won 69.4% of service points and 44.1% on return (113.5% combined) and if he could get back to those levels he’d be the obvious favourite to win the tournament.

Is there an opportunity for those on the fringes?

The aforementioned injury situation is obviously an intangible at the time of writing, so the likes of Grigor Dimitrov (9.510*), Nick Kyrgios (13.740*), Alexander Zverev (16.689*) and David Goffin (17.900*) are more respected in the outright market than would usually be the case.

Of this quartet, all lie between the 106.3% and 103.4% combined service/return points won percentage - quite a bit below Federer and Nadal - with Kyrgios leading this chasing pack. The Australian bad-boy will receive plenty of home support and doesn’t have a disastrous career record (16-24) against top 10 opponents either.

Kyrgios’ success will largely depend on whether he can keep his head together for seven consecutive matches in a fortnight, and also whether his serve-orientated style can get him over the line enough in tight sets.

Evaluating the remaining three players, there is a case for arguing that Dimitrov is a touch over-rated following his World Tour Finals triumph - his numbers indoors are better than outdoors - while Zverev has overperformed on break points consistently in the last season. It’s possible that this may continue, but players who do this frequently mean-revert.

Goffin (14-36 in last 50 matches vs. top 10 opposition) doesn’t often have a higher gear to trouble the big names on tour, and for him to succeed here, the draw would have to seriously open up for the Belgian.

Are there any outsiders worth considering?

Of the remaining players in the men’s Australian Open winner odds, all of Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson, Roberto Bautista-Agut and Sam Querrey boast combined hard court service/return points won percentages in excess of 105%, but all have some doubts over whether they’d be able to sustain a challenge.

80.2% of service games have been held at Melbourne Park, slightly more than the 79.4% ATP hardcourt mean during this time period, while 0.62 aces per game were served, again slightly up on the 0.57 hardcourt average.

Raonic was been injured for large parts of 2017. He played his first match of this year last week and lost in straight sets to young prospect Alex de Minaur as a 1.249 favourite, facing 10 break points on serve across 10 service games - a statistic that supporters of the big-serving Canadian will be horrified by.

Doubts over Cilic focus on poor recent form post-Wimbledon (again, arguably injury-affected) and defeats to Gilles Simon (in Pune last week) and Matt Ebden (in Kooyong Exhibition) won’t have boosted his confidence. A further issue for the Croat is a woeful record against elite level opposition throughout his career.

The big-serving duo of Anderson and Querrey also have mediocre records against top ten opponents, while Querrey typically hasn’t thrived in this part of the world. Bautista-Agut (7-40 career vs top 10) has a flat-track bully dynamic and tends to be outclassed by players better than him.

Finally, some readers may be supporters of the younger prospects on tour at bigger prices, but statistics don’t particularly make a big case for any of them - all of Denis Shapovalov, Andrey Rublev, Hyeon Chung, Daniil Medvedev, Borna Coric and Alex de Minaur are below 102% combined, so it would take a vast improvement for them to threaten the big names in the latter stages.

The Australian Open marks the real beginning of the tennis season. Players have had a tournament or two to get the rust off and they are all coming into the Aussie Open determined to kick off the season with a big performance.

Federer comes into the tournament as the favourite after an amazing 2017, but you can also not count out Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic, who looks like he will be able to return from injury to compete in the tournament. Andy Murray will still be on the sideline due to injury, but Dimitrov has been playing well lately and Alexander Zverev looks primed for a breakout in a major this season. It will be interesting to see how everything shakes out.

2018 Aussie Open Winner Odds

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Here are the odds for the outright winner of the Men’s Singles tournament from SportsInteraction.com, our top rated betting site for Canadians.

• Roger Federer 2.75
• Rafael Nadal 5.75
• Novak Djokovic 5.75
• Grigor Dimitrov 10.75
• Alexander Zverev 11.25
• Juan Martin Del Potro 15.25
• Nick Kyrgios 15.75
• David Goffin 18.75
• Dominic Thiem 26.00
• Stanislas Wawrinka 27.00
• Milos Raonic 33.00
• Marin Cilic 34.00

These odds are from the week prior to the tournament. To see up to date odds head over to SportsInteraction.com and see the updated odds for yourself.

These are the 12 players in the tournament with better than 50/1 odds of winning the tournament and really the only players who I believe could pull out the major heading into this week.

My Picks

The big three…

First we have to look at the big 3 players in the tournament: Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. Federer had a great 2017 going a ridiculous 52-5, while winning two grand slams at the age of 36 after everyone had written him off. The Australian Open was Federer’s first slam win last year, so he will be the defending champion and look to get off to another great start in 2018.

Nadal, who is the current #1 ranked player in the world, also had a resurgent 2017 going 67-11, winning the other two slams of the season (French and US Open). Nadal is returning from an injury he suffered in the ATP Tour Finals at the end of 2017, but he’s looked good in some tune-up matches, so he should be close to his best this week.

Djokovic is the biggest question mark of the 3. He had a 2017 to forget going 32-8, while struggling with injuries. He’s not played since Wimbledon and has seen his ranking drop to 14 heading into the Aussie Open. There were question marks as to whether Djokovic would even be able to play in this tournament, but he played an exhibition match with Dominic Thiem this past week, winning in dominant fashion and he looks to be 100% and have a new determination heading into the tournament.

Let’s not forget that Djokovic has been absolutely dominant at the Aussie Open over the past decade winning 6 titles between 2008 and 2016. Djokovic lost in the second round last year and I expect him to bounce back in a big way. If Djokovic is at 100% he’s the man to beat in this tournament. I don’t think his 6 month absence will affect him in a negative way because most players will be a little bit rusty returning from a quiet couple months in the tennis season, and I think the added rehabilitation time will do wonders for Djokovic’s ability on the court both from a physical perspective and a mental one.

Play: Djokovic 5.75

The dark horse…

For my dark horse pick I’m going all the way down the odds to Canadian superstar, Milos Raonic. He has put together some solid results at the Aussie Open over the past 3 seasons (QF, SF, QF) and if he’s healthy he has the ability to beat the top players in the world. Raonic shut it down for the season last October and the 3 months away from the game should have allowed him to come back 100%. He’s struggled a little bit in the tune-up events, but if he can gain some momentum through the first few rounds of the tournament I think he has the ability to do some damage.

Play: Raonic 33.00

Raonic had odds of 16/1 last year and I couldn’t pull the trigger on him at those odds. This year we’re getting twice the return, which I think makes him a solid value play to compliment my Djokovic play, who is my outright pick to win the tournament.

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